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#GetBoat Twenty Days Left6/28/2016 12:42:55 PM
Published By: LittleWhiteMouse
There are twenty days left in Ranked Battles.  480 hours worth of game play for those insane enough to kill themselves and play non-stop until they die.  At an average of 20 minutes per match, including queue times, this works out to a maximum potential 1440 games you could play between now and the end of the a season!  Look at all of that time left!  What are we all so worried about? 
 
 Assuming you're not a monster and you intend to have a life outside of World of Warships, there's probably not nearly that much time left if you're considering on trying to give a push towards hitting Rank One.  Real life bit me in the butt with visiting family and World of Warships releasing three ships I've had to write reviews for (note to self, get reviews published on ShipComrade some time today so this looks like a legitimate excuse).
 
So say you're like me.  I am willing to give World of Warships 4 hours a day, five days a week from now until the end of the season.  Will this be enough time?  That's 15 of 20 days I'll commit to, with a total of 70 hours.  At three games per hour, that's roughly 210 games I'm allotting to try and finish up the season. 
 
"Well, Mouse," you might say like a cheeky bastard, "Weren't you the one gloating early on in the season that 200 games was going to be the outside limit of what you needed to rank out this season?"   Shut up.  I miss my Atago something fierce.
 
Ranked has not been going well for me this season.  I'm sitting at a 60% win rate and I think I will be happy if I finish out the season at a 55% win rate overall at the rate I'm going. But 55% is a very dangerous number.  Let's dig up the math to see why.  Here's what it looks like for me to finish ranking out this season.  I STRONGLY suggest you all take out a bit of paper and pen and do the calculations yourself.
 
I am sitting at Rank 8 with 4 stars.  This means I have 35 stars left to finish up the season.
 
At the various win rates:
  • 35 games / 65% win rate = 54 games.
  • 35 games / 60% win rate = 59 games.
  • 35 games / 55% win rate = 64 games.

These are the best case scenarios, assuming that each one of my losses I'm at the top of the team.  If I can't, the worst case scenario each calculate to the following:

 
For 65%:
  • 19 losses / 65% = 29 games.
  • 10 losses / 65% = 15 games.
  • 5 losses / 65% = 8 games.
  • 3 losses / 65% = 5 games.
  • 2 losses / 65% = 3 games.
  • 1 loss.

TOTAL:  114 +/- 1 games maximum.

 For 60%
  • 24 losses / 60% = 40 games.
  • 16 losses / 60% = 27 games.
  • 11 losses / 60% = 18 games.
  • 7 losses / 60% = 12 games.
  • 5 losses / 60% = 8 games.
  • 3 losses / 60% = 5 games.
  • 2 losses / 60% = 3 games.
  • 1 loss.

TOTAL:  172 +/- 1 games maximum.

 
For 55%
  • 29 losses / 55% =  53 games.
  • 24 losses / 55% = 44 games.
  • 20 losses / 55% = 36 games.
  • 16 losses / 55% = 29 games...

At this stage I'm already over 226 games.  I simply do not have the time to finish out the Ranked Battle season if I suffer a string of losses and cannot end up top on XP at a 55% win rate.

 This tells me a couple of things.  I should expect at least 70 more games to finish up the season.  I should not be surprised if it takes as many as another 150.  If it goes much beyond that and I'm not sitting at Rank 2 by that time, then it may be time to call it.  Grim news, to be sure, but the math doesn't lie.
 
 
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